Jeremy Lin and evaluating players

In the past few weeks, Jeremy Lin has shockingly joined the New York Knicks' starting line-up and has turned the team around. This was shocking because back in 2010, after he graduated from Harvard, no scout was interested in him. He went undrafted in the 2010 NBA draft. The Golden State Warriors signed him, sent him to the Development League three times, and eventually cut him. He was then signed by the Houston Rockets, before he joined the New York Knicks, who also sent him down to the D-League at the start of the year before rejoining the team for good. Considering all of this, it was shocking to see Lin take over the NBA. No one had ever heard of Jeremy Lin. Lin's rise has led to questions about the evaluation of college talent in all leagues, not just basketball. Lin's rise to being the starting point guard for the Knicks has showed that draft evaluators are often wrong, and more importantly, are often looking for the wrong things.

Recently, the book Moneyball, which was written by Michael Lewis, was turned into a major motion picture. Moneyball told the story of the Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane, the General Manager of the team. Beane was given one of the smallest budgets in baseball, and had to compete with spending giants like the New York Yankees and Boston Redsox. Because Beane didn't have the funds to outbid for players that other teams wanted, Beane had to find new ways of evaluating players. He decided to not try and buy players, but runs. He focused in on on-base percentage, as his most valued statistic, and was able to assemble a team, that was statistically proven to win, even though every scout who judged players though the team was destined to fail. After his team won an American League record 20 straight games and made the playoffs, Billy Beane fundamentally changed the way baseball players are evaluated. Baseball is alone in this change though, and the rise of Jeremy Lin shows this.

Back in 2010, Ed Weiland, who runs www.hoopsanalyst.com/blog, was previewing the NBA draft prospects. Based on only two stats, Weiland predicted that Lin might be “the best candidate to pull off such a surprise.” Weiland only used 2-point FG pct and RSB40, which means rebounds, steals, and blocks, per 40 minutes. Because basketball is a game predicated on having possession of the ball, and converting on your possessions, these stats prove much more meaningful than experts have considered them to be. 2-point FG pct shows how efficient the player is at scoring. As discussed, in my last post, scoring efficiently is very important. Rebounds, steals, and blocks, are other statistics that show how good someone is at obtaining possession for your team. Based on these two numbers, Weiland successfully predicted that Lin would be very successful. As he said: “Jeremy Lin might be the #2 PG available in this draft. He looks to me like a sleeper in the mold of George Hill. He appears to have the skills to become at least a usable combo guard. If he can get the passing thing down and handle the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star.” The scouts missed this though, because they were looking for the wrong things. They were looking for points scored, assists, and rebounds. They also didn't like the fact that Lin played in the Ivy league, which is a weak basketball conference. Because of this though, many first-round picks in the NBA bust, and players like Lin may have never been given a chance. 

Basketball is among a few sports that need an evaluation overhaul, and hopefully Weiland’s new way of evaluating players will start it. Scoring isn’t the only statistic that matters anymore. Scouts looked at Lin and saw a relatively small player, from a non-traditional basketball school, and completely overlooked him, when the numbers showed Lin should have been drafted high. Recently, the NFL hosted their drafting combine where players go and workout in front of every team. Their workout has huge ramifications on their draft position. An especially critical stat is the 40-yard dash. Scouts find this state especially important for wide receivers and running backs. A tenth of a second makes all the difference in this drill, when in the NFL, running backs are never going to run in a straight line without pads as fast they can for 40 yards. Game tape showing vision, strength, elusiveness, and acceleration should be more important. I know scouts do look at this, but if the tape confirms they have these skills, their workout shouldn’t matter, and vice versa. If they have a great workout, but have never proven it on the field that should be a much better indicator. Scouting in every sport is flawed, and hopefully the rise of Jeremy Lin will lead scouts to reevaluate how they do their jobs.

The link to Weiland's blog talking about Lin before the draft: http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487